Sunday 25 August 2013

Can Andy Murray retain his US Open crown?

After the euphoria of his incredible Wimbledon triumph last month, you could be forgiven for forgetting Andy Murray actually won his first grand slam title almost 12 months ago on the courts of Flushing Meadows as he won the US Open.

That Monday night, September 10th 2012 will live long in the memory for anyone who watched Murray's historic five-set win over Novak Djokovic. It represented the culmination of years of struggle for Murray coming to an end as he won his first major title at the fifth time of asking.

Now, after winning Wimbledon to collect a second slam title, Murray can really stamp his authority on the tennis world by defending his US Open crown. However, that will be easier said than done.

The draw hasn't been the kindest to the man from Dunblane, but as we know now you write off Murray at your peril these days in Grand Slams.

Here is Murray's potential route to glory in New York:

Round 1- Michael Llodra (World Ranking-49)
The 33 year-old Frenchman shouldn't pose too many problems for Murray as he kicks off his campaign. Llodra is more of a doubles specialist these days and has had a decidedly mixed 2013 so far winning 12 out of 22 matches. 
However, he did reach the semi finals of the Paris Masters last year defeating Juan Martin Del Potro and John Isner along the way. But with Murray thumping him last year in straight sets in the Australian Open, he should do so again.

Round 2- Victor Hanescu (World Ranking- 54)
The Romanian should again be taken care of with relative ease by Murray. Like Llodra, he is now in his 30s and never poses any real threat to the top players. 
Furthermore he has never been beyond the second round at the US Open, so if Murray is on-song he should get through to the last 32 without too much fuss.

Round 3- Juan Monaco (World Ranking- 32)
The Daily Mail's guide on Friday dismissed Monaco as a journeyman but I think this won't be the easiest tie for Murray. He's is still an obvious clear favourite to beat the Argentinian, but Monaco was ranked as high as 10th in the world just over a year ago and has twice reached the 4th round of this tournament in 2007 and 2011. Murray should win in straight sets, but I wouldn't be surprises if this goes to 4 sets.

Round 4- Nicolas Almagro (World Ranking- 15)
The World Number 15 from Spain should await Murray in Round 4. It won't be all plain sailing for Murray against a consistent performer, but there can be no doubting Almagro is more of a clay-court specialist having reached the French Open quarter finals three times, including in 2008 when he beat Murray. 
However, over the last few years Murray has become accustomed to starting the second week of grand slams in top fashion and I'd expect him to have few issues against Almagro.

Quarter Final- Tomas Berdych (World Ranking- 5)
This is where things start to get a whole lot trickier for Murray. I'm rather worried about this potential match-up as Berdych is a real bogeyman for the Wimbledon hero. He beat him comfortably in Cincinnati just over two weeks ago and has won six out of their ten meetings. 
His forehand and big serve seem to really trouble Murray, but the Scot can take comfort in the fact that one of his wins came in last years US Open semi-final.
Berdych can be described as erratic, and Murray has much more big game experience than him. I'd tip Murray to win in five sets if this match-up occurs.

Semi-Final- Novak Djokovic (World Ranking- 1)
What a mouthwatering prospect this is but Murray would have preferred this to come in the final I would suspect. Murray will clearly have to be at his best to beat Djokovic but comes into this knowing that he beat him here last year and the Wimbledon final this year. The two of them have developed a fantastic rivalry and it really is a match that could be decided on the toss of a coin. 
If Murray gets his strategy bang on like he did at Wimbledon he will secure a place in the final. But Djokovic is such a machine, that you fancy him to be raring to atone for that Wimbledon loss.

Final- Rafael Nadal- (World Ranking- 2)
If Murray makes his second consecutive US Open final, it is likely he will have to beat the Spaniard who you can never write off. I will happily admit that I thought he was going to struggle again after his shock first-round loss at Wimbledon but he has been in brilliant form in the hard-court summer season so far winning the Montreal and Cincinnati Masters titles.
He would have to get by Roger Federer in a potentially brilliant quarter-final, but I'd fancy the in-form Spaniard to get past the ageing Swiss man.
Murray has a poor record against Nadal, only winning five of their 18 matches, but the better news for Murray is that those wins have all come on hard courts. And he did beat Nadal on his way to the 2008 US Open final and if this final did occur, you have to wonder about Nadal's knees after two brutal weeks on this surface.

Prediction: Murray to fall just short after a five-set epic semi-final with Djokovic, who will go onto beat Nadal in the final in two weeks.

Obviously I hope I'm wrong in that prediction. 

No comments:

Post a Comment